The Tournament pt 2 - The Favourites
Wednesday, June 9, 2010 at 1:00PM It’s no big news that Spain and Brazil are clear favourites for the World Cup. I would even go so far as to say that no other team has a chance of winning the title, with the possible exception of Italy, but even then it’s only out of respect for them as the current Champions. So many things are pointing in the favour of Spain and Brazil, so the real question is which team will have the edge.
Brazil’s fast paced, attacking style will mean they will no doubt rack up the scores against the average teams, but the challenge to Brazil always comes against the more defensive minded of the European Heavyweights. They faded limply against France four years ago. However this is a team that Dunga has built for these type of tactical, attritional battles. People have bemoaned the lack of flair, and it’s true that this Brazil team may not be scoring 3 or 4 goals on a regular basis. But this team will still win those games. Where they hold the advantage will be later on in the tournament. The team does still have its fair quota of attacking brilliance, but they play in a much more European style. Less Samba.
The defence for Brazil is looking pretty strong this time. Juan has been quietly excellent for Roma for about 2 years now. Has such great defensive ability that he sometimes made Mexes look good. Lucio is another superb defender, and a great ball player too. The same could be said of Maicon, a more physically imposing and defensively instinctive full back than we are used to seeing. Gilberto will also basically play as a stationary wall about 5 feet in front of the defence.
Melo is a very un-Brazilian player, again very defensive and not much of a ball player. Is trying to model his game on Emerson, and not really succeeding…yet. That’s a hell of a lot of good defensive players already. This team is built primarily to not concede goals. They are also blessed with 2 great keepers. In the recent past, Brazil teams have been built from the top down i.e Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho and then whoever else. Even the inclusion of Elano as a playmaker/point guard is a nod to caution and pragmatism.
The biggest statement is the omission of Ronaldinho. He’s had a decent season, and you know he would produce a few magic moments if he was picked, but it’s a clear message from Dunga. These clear statements of Dunga are part of why he may not be the right man for the Brazil job. He has made the team all about his philosophy and his personality rather than that of Brazil. The Brazilian coach should be a background character. The team will pick itself, play itself, and win itself. Dunga will argue that they won that way in ’94, but then they had Romario and Bebeto. Now they have Luis Fabiano, Grafite, Nilmar and Baptista.
In ’94 Brazil, after failing miserably with their Samba style for 20-odd years, went for a different strategy. They played with midfield cloggers like Mauro Silva and Mazinho. But they won that WC because of the brilliance of Romario, and the ultimate 2nd Striker Bebeto. They certainly won’t be able rely on the brilliance of their strikers this time, because Pato and Neymar have been left behind, and all they have up front are Luis Fabiano, Grafite, Nilmar and Baptista. None of those players are ones I see setting this tournament on fire. Fabiano is a good player, always has been, but his best years are behind him and he is not genuinely world class. So the burden will fall onto Kaka and primarily (for goals) onto Robinho.
Strikers scoring won’t be a problem for Spain. In David Villa they have a player who is making scoring over a goal every 2 games at the highest level very easy. As far as I can tell, he appears to have completely mastered the art of goalscoring. With the service he will be getting from all areas of the midfield, he won’t fail to score at least 4 goals. This fact alone will probably get Spain to the final. The only slight weakness in the Spain line up is left back, and also that Puyol will get found out a couple of times. But they will ride that out pretty easily.
Fabregas will probably play ahead of Torres, but either way it gives Spain flexibility to switch from 4-4-2 to 4-5-1 with devastating effect. They have great players in all levels of the midfield too. They managed to win the Euros without ever having to get out of 3rd gear. They have a fairly easy group. The one thing against them is history. Spain have never won the WC, and there is the eternal taboo – no European team has ever won it outside Europe. Spain are probably better placed to break this curse than any European team previously. Despite history being against them, I make them favourites ahead of Brazil. Del Bosque is the perfect coach for this team, willing to play the background and let the players take centre stage.
The only other team that stand a chance of winning is Italy. The team is very nondescript, but, as it was 4 years ago, it’s not about the team. It’s about Lippi. In the last WC, you saw with Italy and England the 2 polar opposites of how to mould a team. England was based around the cult of the superstar player, Italy around the cult of the manager. It’s arguably been taken a step further this time with the omission of Totti.
I’m fairly certain Lippi will believe that the squad he is taking this time is actually stronger than 4 years ago. There are a lot of unrecognisable names. But the team is built around collective strength. 4 years ago they were characterized by the likes of Perotta and Iaquinta – hard working, skilful, yet totally unglamorous players. They will play by the same theory this time. They will follow Lippi’s instructions, work hard for each other, and might once again surprise a few people. The fact they are totally unheralded will play right into Lippi’s hands. This team is the footballing equivalent of a ninja assassin – silent, faceless, but brutally efficient.
Would be nice if Capello can achieve the same effect for England.
by guest-blogger Chrisman
Reader Comments (19)
I disagree that only Spain and Brazil have any chance of realistically winning the World Cup. Germany have got a young and exciting squad. With a bit of confidence they could go far. And what about the Netherlands? As a Spurs fan it saddens me to say this but I think Robin Van Persie is going to set the tournament alight.
What about Argentina with a certain Mr. Messi?
Never discount the Germans...
Excellent - well done.
Argentina could win it if they built the team around messi, but they have a crackhead as a manager.
Coming in the next installment is 'The Fakers'. Then I will say why Holland and Argentina won't win
Argentina were very patchy in qualifying, and have a certifiable loon in charge. They will no doubt romp their group - including smashing someone by about 6 goals - narrowly beat Mexico before going out to the first organised side they face in the quarters, the Germans. Hmm, sound familiar.
I can't see past Brazil if i'm honest, double them up with an each-way bet on Nilmar to be top-scorer
Argentina should in no way be discounted. When Diego took over they won 1 out of 7 qualifiers, after DM 4 from the remaining 8. They scrambled through, seemed disorganised and the manager coming uo asincompetent and a nutjuob.
Not at all dis-similar to the Brazil campaign under Scolari in 2002, where they lost to Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador, Uraguay, Argentina and Bolivia. Drawing with Colombia, Uraguay and Peru. Picking up big points against the Argies narrow wins against Ecuador and Chile at home, and picking max points against the might of Venezuela (national sport- Baseball). Brazil almost did not qualify and Scolari's team were labelled the worst Brazil team to enter a finals campaign despite having Ronaldo, Ronaldihno and Rivaldo in tow. Leaving behind Romario- madness. 6 weeks later Hey presto World Cup Champions
Argentina will take to the field with Messi, Maxi Rodriguez, Tevez, Gago, Higuain, Romero, a very happy camp and a nutjob as a manager.
Diego Maradonna is the South American equivalent of Alan Shearer. He was a great player but he's stuck in a past era tactically. He's playing four centre-backs (as made famous by Stoke), for Christ's sake!
Unless I'm tragically mistaken, Gago is not going. An interesting comparison with Brazil 02. However there is 1 major difference - stronger competition this time round.
I have Ivory Coast & North Korea in the Sweep so am just praying to get out of group stages -
Then I am sure Sven will turn Managerial mastermind and lead the Ivorians to world cup glory............................................
Might buy another ticket - Holland have not been picked out of the hat yet
Argentina conceded 13 of their 20goals from set pieces. The reasoning (loose term alert) behind the no recognised full backs is in how they set up with Guiterrez playing the advanced Cafu/ Roberto Carlos role on the right and Messi cutting inside on the left opening the space for Romero having two attacking options on that flank with Veron (South American player for the past two seasons) as the advanced CM and Mascherano as the DM Tevez in hole and Maxi Rodriguez and Higuain as the spearheads.
Alan Shearer has no such forsight or understanding of systems and never had such an array of talent available.
No Gago. Surprised there's no Pato for Brazil. Lack of form?
triffics - they sytem desribed is a total mess. and Maxi is a wide player, and who romero is I have no idea. As far as im aware he is their keeper
IMy bad I stand corrected with Ronero i'm in the middle of baking cookies with my son(my excuse anyway) and I meant Di Maria in the middle between Tevez and Veron with Rodriguez wide. The formation remains the same, all soth american names look a like innit,. The system requires the defenders to do just that defend (Johnson??) leave the thrust of the attacking to the gifted one(s) and with Macherano covering, the centre will not be exposed (Makalele/ Terry compared to Carrick - Mikel/ Terry). It's only a mess when Juande Ramos or Tony Pulis attempts it with not so good players
I'm not disputing the authors choice of favourites, stats and recent form suggest that the Spanish would be near unstoppable. However in my lifetime one only one of these tournaments ever went to form 1970 Brazil.
Or Kevin Keegan
Deutschland, Deutschland, Deutschland!
2002 WC 2nd
2006 WC 3rd
2008 Euros 2nd
Day of the Triffics, can you explain the Argentina formation in English please? Perhaps name the formation first - 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 etc - and the run through who plays where. So far, if I take your explanation literally I have:
----------------------------------GK--------------------------------
Gutierrez------- Centre-back------- Centre-back-------Messi
------------------------------Mascherano---------------------
Tevez-----------------------Di Maria------------------------Veron -----------------Maxi Rodriguez
--------------------------------------------------Higuain---------------------------------------------------
Surely Maradona doesn't play the world's best player, Messi, as a LB does he? What exactly have you been puttiing in those cakes? Are you sharing them with Maradona?
Day of the Triffics, can you explain the Argentina formation in English please? Perhaps name the formation first - 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 etc - and the run through who plays where. So far, if I take your explanation literally I have:
-----------------------------GK-----------------------------
Gutierrez----Centre-back----Centre-back----Messi
------------------------Mascherano---------------------
Tevez--------Di Maria----------Veron ---------Maxi
-------------------------Higuain-----------------------
Surely Maradona doesn't play the world's best player, Messi, as a LB does he? What exactly have you been puttiing in those cakes? Are you sharing them with Maradona?
Argentina were very patchy in qualifying, and have a certifiable loon in charge. They will no doubt romp their group - including smashing someone by about 6 goals - narrowly beat Mexico before going out to the first organised side they face in the quarters, the Germans. Hmm, sound familiar.
I can't see past Brazil if i'm honest, double them up with an each-way bet on Nilmar to be top-scorer
Jun 9, 2010 at 1:54 PM | Harvey Huddlestone
---------------------------------------------------------
Spookily right in the first instance, oh so wrong in the second!!