Show me the way to go home
Thursday, February 10, 2011 at 4:12PM Most would agree that we could probably/possibly build the NDP but not remain competitive on the pitch, but could do so (remain competitive) if we moved to East London. Hence the reason why Levy wants Stratford. It's viable in terms of planning and fiscal reasons compared to the NDP. I'm sure we'll learn more about the reasons in the coming weeks. Perhaps the NDP is a complete non-starter because Levy failed to forecast the present day in terms of property development/value and sponsorship. Inconvenient truths and half-truths and assumptions wherever you look at the minute.
So hypothetically, if there was no Olympics and no site/stadium, if it simply was not an option (just work with me on this) - what would Spurs do to resolve the progression problem?
Levy has reached a stage where the club (on and off the pitch) is doing superbly well so he has to make a move (metaphorically, calm down) to consolidate. Mainly because football has changed and staggering progression by building on success on the field was something we completely missed out on in the 1990s and that particular brand of template is no longer on offer in these ridiculous EPL days of excess.
(It's going to bottleneck at some point I guarantee it, and we're fortunate enough to have such a loyal fanbase because other clubs have already began to suffer on the pitch and in the stands)
Anyways...
There has to be another way, right? It might not offer the immediate fix Stratford does or perhaps it's not as easy as a move to East London would be - but we're talking about a club that has been around for almost 130 years. A few more years will not cripple and kill us. We've competed at the top level every decade since the 50s and the reason we've not done better ( the upper tier top level in terms of the title) is because of the monumental cock ups that lead to us almost going under back in '91. We lagged behind and yet we are doing mighty fine now considering we were also half crippled by on the pitch bad management and lack of direction at times from the board.
Obviously we all agree we've never been a title challenging side. But to retain the ambition to be one is a good way to look ahead. Hence the reason for the NDP and (sadly) the reason why Stratford became Levy's number one choice. The emotive issue is something I want to side step for a moment.
Levy fixed us. Made mistakes, learnt from them and now we're at a crossroads where we are threatened with having to leave N17 if we don't get the OS, which according to everyone, we wont.
So surely Levy has a Plan B? And no I don't mean asking Crouch to lay down and build a 60,000 all-seater on his back.
It's become so cut-throat all this - move or be doomed - that I wonder how much of it is based on second guessing what Levy's strategy is and people accepting sentimental sacrifice for the sake of the apparent sudden urgency to be able to afford to pay someone 200k per week to play for us - because that's what it will take to compete with certain other clubs if that's the ilk of club you want. If that's what it takes to compete.
Just throwing it out there. No Stratford (in this pretend world I've created which might well transcend into our world from tomorrow morning, what with it already turning up a little early late last night).
Just a hypothetical based on Stratford never being an option. What and where do we look to take the club if WHL can not serve our ambitions? Stick or stay?
One thing I'm hoping for is that whatever happens tomorrow (11am press conference) Levy takes us forwards as one entity of Spurs fans rather than everyone playing percentages on what side of the fence the majority allegedly sit on whilst the rest.
Hypothetical. For today.
(ps - excuse the roughness of this blog article, stinking headache)
Reader Comments (125)
1
Wembley?
Can we replace the word 'viable' - its starting to really grate. Maybe something like cost-effective or financialy sound or doable.
If it's true that we haven't got the OS (which is fine by me) then I do hope Levy will let it go and get on with whatever Plan B is rather go into the world of judicial reviews and drag our name through the mud.
Maybe there is no Plan B, in which case one will have to be developed. It could even be sell the club although Levy would not be in a good negotiating position at present.
Let's see what the little business demon has up his sleeve, but please don't go down the drawn-out legal route which will not change anything anyway.
Can we stop using the word viable - its starting to really grate - maybe something like cost effective, financialy sound or doable.
West Ham in the Olympic stadium= Dot Cotton wearing Jordan's bra
i heard that we couldnt secure naming rights for the amount needed to make NDP viable.
As I said on HH blog yesterday before the leak, we wouldn't get it not only due to the politics but because of the persons on the committee. 5 had vested interests in the area and live locally so they would more than likely support the Hammers anyway. God knows how these guys 'n' girls sat on the committee because it certainly crys out 'conflict of interest'!!
Anyway, no shocks, no surprises, just back to the drawing board.
COYFS!
This has started to be a bit of a worry. Mr Levy has, of late, seemed clear when he stated that the OS was really our only option and there was now no plan B. If, as the leak indicates, its WHU's then what the hell are we going to do and where do we now turn ? As I say bit of a worry but will just have to wait and see what tomorrow brings.
It now looks like it will be WHU that get this stadium. You happy Spooks? - at the beginning you confessed you weren't sure. You then swung to N17. Now what? How did you feel last night?
They will (probably) have the stadium and sell out most games. I've written in other places how they will do this. People can come on here and deny it and call them a poxy little club etc, but the position, size and ease of access will take them to a different level. Where they are now is just a temporary state.
In 4-5 years time (or before) they will then ripe for picking. An Arab State or family will come knocking and they will be the club to buy and elevate to mega proportions. We will not be battling to be 4th in the league. No, we will be struggling to be 4th in London.
Don't worry, we'll all be happy knowing that when Bolton, Wolves and Wigan or even Leeds, Cardiff and Norwich are playing us off the field then we didn't quite get round to selling our soul.
CL - shit anyway isn't it? Ask the 65,000 people trying to get tickets today.
one thing is for sure, the NDP is dead. I keep reading people are happy that this decision will force us to revisit the NDP plan, but this isn't viable. Why ?? The spiralling costs and the fact that our current location can barely support 35 thousand people let alone 60 thousand. So no, we will not be revisting the NDP plan. Its gone, please forget it people, it would bankrupt the club.
If stratford is confirmed as the vessel that west ham die in then what do we do?? We have to hope they find another site somewhere beacause if we ever want to finish top 4 again it is vital we get a bigger ground and until we do, not one spurs fans can expect any more than 5th place. It may not be what alot of you want to hear but we simply cannot expect higher than this when we cannot compete off the pitch against the top 4. Will reason finally find a home with spurs fans? knowing spurs fans, i very much doubt it.
What is the second largest brownfield site in London after the Olympic Site?
Who owns a major entertainment venue adjacent to this locale?
@ReSignTaricco North Greenwich, by the O2? Bit too near woolwich!
Move but stay in North London. Simple As. Levy is a top businessman and I have faith in him to make the stadium more 'viable' (sorry!!) in the near future. He is not the sort of bloke not to have a Plan B. Hell, I'd wager he has got a Plan X, Y and Z, not that we'd like them.
I just have a horrible feeling.....
It would very much be in keeping with what AEG are trying to achieve with the LA Live venture in California (a stadium next to a multi-use facility).
Ahem. Up till now, the prospect of two porn barons and their dunder-headed former 'favours' woman actually winning the OS bid by virtue of their shrill cries of revolution and tribal battles on the streets, while disgusting in the utmost, was still palatable if it meant we looked at the former option of staying in N17 again or looked at new sites nearby, away from the long, withering, indolent arm of Haringey Council. But now, after reading the harrumphingly triumphant article bashed out by dear mrs.Brady, I have to ask;how can this country award 500 million pounds worth of tax-payer money to someone who is now quite clearly batshit crazy?
Karren Brady
"Saturday August 16, 2014
THE day has arrived. Finally, we kick-off in the sold-out Olympic Stadium this afternoon and we are ready.
Mark Noble will lead us out as we make our Olympic claret and blue-print a reality - and it really has been a Noble cause.
Three years ago, some doubted we could make it work. For no reason other than self-interest, they questioned our joint vision with Newham Council, our bold legacy plans on a grand scale.
Opinion was presented as fact and decades of tradition were cast aside in favour of personal gain. That just Spur-red us on even more.
I've received so many positive messages. Even Daniel Levy sent me a message of good luck from the Bahamas and I will certainly raise a glass to him today.
England manager Harry Redknapp will be my guest after an amazing summer saw us get World Cup glory again.
His boys back from Brazil brought the trophy home to spend the next 12 months in our museum and his success is another triumph for the Academy of Football.
Our fans have followed us the short way from Upton Park to Stratford, back to the old borough of West Ham.
It is great that many are keeping to their usual traditions, visiting the same pubs they have for generations and meeting up with friends old and new for pie and mash.
It is about good old East End values and, for us now, the pie's the limit.
That has been the most fantastic thing about the move, however difficult it was to leave behind the beloved Boleyn. In a way everything and nothing has changed at the same time.
We have heard from supporters who had lost touch with the club who are coming home and we have reached out to so many more who had felt that Premier League football was beyond them.
We have spent the last three years consulting with supporters and involving them in what you see today — a stunning Olympic Stadium fit for purpose. We have kept our promises.
We have delivered exactly what we promised.
Football takes centre stage right now but this summer has seen wave after wave of major events — from 107-odd thousand who turned out to see Madonna in July, to the triumphant third staging of the National School Games in May after more kids than ever got involved across the country.
We are open all year round and there is always something going on. The Olympic Stadium has lit a flame in all of us.
When I look out the window on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and see what great British endeavour has created — from the Velodrome to the Aquatic Centre — it is a joy to behold.
Our fans arriving today by rail and car will walk through the John Lyall gates into an East London transformed — an East London that is as strong as the original Iron Works that forged our great club. Before kick-off at 3pm, we are going to parade a line of our Olympic heroes.
Yes, there will be the gold medallists from 2012 but there will also be representatives from all walks of life who played their part in making today a reality.
This is a community stadium on a grand scale and it has set the bar for the world to follow.
To look at what we have achieved and even contemplate that the Olympic Stadium we know and love could have been demolished is enough to make you shudder.
We would not be looking forward to this autumn's Twenty20 cricket internationals or the World Athletics Championships in 2017.
And our prospects of bidding for more major events would have been greatly reduced.
We can look back with pride on February 2011 and know that we all did the right thing. "
Apologies for not posting a link, but I wouldn't force a visit to the Rag on anyone.
l still maintain the poker game theory. The cards are now dealt, Daniel Negreanu Levy raised the stakes but Wet Sham have hit on the flop and gone all-in (so to speak-all puns intended ; )) now he needs to make a bold move on the turn in order to get the govt to fold and give the concessions that will enable the NPD to go ahead and we all end up with the nuts hand on the river card rather than the current situation of standing with our own nuts in our hand wondering how long this farce will continue
I spent 3 1/2 hours waiting on the website today for the chance of scraping the barrel for 1 seat, wherever it was, for the Milan game. The 'Sold Out' icon finally flashed before the loading line had gone 2/3 of the way across the page. For thousands like me it's just a case of we want to see a game... And have the choice of what game we see, rather than pinch the odd seat here and there for the Carling Cup games the season ticket holders can't be fussed to go to.
My wife recently became a member and we haven't been able to sit together at a game yet and are lucky if we're even in the same block. I'm not a 'Johnny come lately', I've been following the club since 1976 and have attended many hundreds of games in that period. I think there are lots like me... So for me, no. Standing still is not really an option and that has nothing to do with greed for a new centre forward.
I still don't understand how the NDP can go from being viable to non-viable in three months. Were they lying when they said it was? And why submit a plan for Stratford that was bound to outrage almost everyone, to demolish the stadium and not keep the promised athletics capability. I assume they wanted to win but sometimes I wonder.
So many puzzling questions.
There is no plan B and can't be, as WHL is in the middle of an urban development that can't be changed. No access, no parking, no space, no room, no growth, no matter what anyone says or thinks. WHL is dead for a 'super' premier league team.
Levy knows.
Move or stagnate, end of!
what about moving to pickets lock!?
@ singer:
Utter bollocks.
A 60K stadium in Tottenham is perfectly viable...........if the will is there.
Does Levy have the will or does he just want everything paid for by the taxpayer and presented to him on a plate?
Hi Iain
Just posted something similar to another question on the last blog but basically, I think when the NDP was drawn up, we were in a slightly different economic climate. If you think, it's not just 3 months, the NDP was originally launched in Oct 2008 & would have been in development for at least 6 months before that - So maybe Jan, Feb 2008? The Freddie Mac/Fanny May collapse, which triggered the worst of the crisis wasn't until around Sept 2008 and even then, the scale of the problem wasn't known until after the Lehman Brothers collapse.
So, I think at the time the NDP was launched it was a genuine option but since then two things have happened that have changed the game as it were.
1. Bank lending has hit the buffers meaning that any money we borrow to finance the project would be almost suicidally expensive. This coupled with the collapse of property values in London and a 'wait and see' outlook on the economy has meant that hotel chains and potential partners have gone cold on involvement. This leaves us too big a gap to plug from 'Naming rights' alone (Emirates generated £100m and that was a much better proposition in terms of location & in a boom market).
2. The success of the club on the field and the burgeoning waiting list has made the club realise that, even at 52,000, the proposed capacity could soon be outgrown. The capacity at WHL is capped because of the sight lines of daylight to the local houses & buildings, so we wouldn't be able to 'Do an Old Trafford' and add a further 10k on later if the demand warranted it... And let's face it, they could have sold 80,000 to the Milan game.
More viable? Unviable? I think they're pretty much the same thing. In the current market though, you'd have to call the NDP financial suicide.
Needs to be further out than Pickets Lock.
Getting to and from PL is almost as bad as WHL.
Mes - great post. Thanks for the clarity. By the way, I too was on the website for several hours and a sign came up saying sold out.
mes, you are correct on this one.
But the other point I made earlier that has had the biggest impact is the global inflationary prices of raw materials. Can't be bothered to repeat, but in summary, everything you might want to build a stadium with now cost more, much more, than it did (even a few months back in some cases).
Brass tacks, unfortunately that's what's undone NDP.
How about a move to the old Crystal Palace site? That is now up for grabs! Or is THAT too far? Because Stratford somehow wasn't... Seriously though, I firmly believe that WHL is viable, just perhaps not "viable" enough for Levy to make enough profit from selling Spurs and retire early.
I really do struggle to see how much 250m difference is going to make - the transfer budgets would remain the same. Has Man U's debt affected its spending? No. Did Liverpool's debt affect their spending? No. Did their lack of Champions League affect spending? No. Admittedly they are incredibly lucky. But, they have a stadium merely 6000 seats bigger that ours, so it is possible to progress until the large stadium comes. Plus, I really do believe that these are just massaged figures anyway - to make Stratford appear more 'viable' than it actually is. Plus it is all estimation work anyway. The Stratford plan has too much going on (demolish Stratford, rebuild Stratford, demolish WHL, develop on WHL, demolish/build/refurbish Crystal Palace) - how can you put a realistic figure on all of that? The WHL project ended up costing more than originally planned, so we should not be surprised if the Stratford and Crystal Palace stuff do too.
I hate Brady. She's a fucking idiot. I hope Sugar sacks her from his crap programme so I never have to see her face on TV again.
I'll tell you what would make the NDP viable, extension of the victoria line and a large amount of cash
perhaps we should all email david clammy and get him to take his smug twatty face down to TFL and try and get them to sort out some transport, and maybe take some of the money he makes on his second home and put into N17.
this could be like missing out on Joe Cole that is to say dodging a bullett!
And why are people having a go at Plan B, defamation of stricktland banks was a great album last year, and should have been mecury nominanted in my opinion.
Sorry, that should be 'Barclaycard Mercury Prize (tm) nominated', my mistake ;)
Mes - You're talking a lot of sense, your post about the timescales etc is a very good point. We also had to cut down the size of hotel and residential which I'm sure was mentioned on this blog as well.
Tricky - same goes for you, read both your posts earlier and made a refreshing change from Levy out posts.
This whole process has confused me. AEG came to us, I think that much is clear.
Comments made the other day about LA Galaxy and the clubs relationship seemed to indicate we have long term plans together - and maybe without the OS happening, in comes Plan B?
So what next, what are AEG's plans / history? I remember reading about them and the SuperCasino plans, could some sort of horse trading of happened with the Mayor to get Spurs and AEG to bid for the OS to put the squeeze on West Ham and make them improve their offer? The Mayor would then be happy to back future plans they may have.
They sure made a good go of the Dome. Baroness Ford of the OPLC also had a position within that process as well, so her ties with AEG are probably quite strong. So why make Spurs and AEG bid and then accept a bid that was of no interest to them or the public?
Transport links and a better deal on the remaining land we have to buy could make the NDP viable if we have a partner committed to reducing the costs involved. £450m becomes a lot more viable if its £250m/£300m.
Hopefully by tomorrow we'll know more. I think Richard Keys was on to something with his dark forces. The charming Ms Brady. Spot on.
The costs of the NDP went up as well with the requirement to leave "historic" buildings untouched, I know the red house has links to dear old bill nic (R.I.P.), but I have to say it will be ironic if the people behind the save the red house campaign effectively contributed to the requirement for us to leave the WHL area.
Sorry, TonyRich, but did you seriously just say 'I don't know what difference £250 million will make'?
Seriously, I mean, like, did you think about that statement before submitting it, and filling in the anti spam letters box at the bottom?
It's just that our turnover last year was reported to be £119 million, and our operating profit after player trading was actually a loss of £5.8 million. A loss, not profit (sure the headline figure said 'profit before player trading was £22 million odd', but guess what they stuck a little star at the end of it and some small print, as it turns out we spent more than our profit on players,which we needed to, in order to improve the squad).
And you have actually put the statement that 'you don't know what difference £250 million will make'.
Come on, I mean, wow, seriously, I've just turned into, like, an american teenage girl, with like, disbelief at how unrealistic we are as a collective sometimes.
Stunned, just, stunned.
I think you can argue either way about he effects of debt on Man U & Liverpool. Both have had to undergo a serious period of belt tightening - Otherwise I'm sure we would have seen serious moves by Ferguson for Bale by now & Liverpool had a net outlay of less than £10m by selling Torres. Not exactly breaking the bank.
Both have had serious issues with the financial propriety of their owners and I don't think even the most staunch opponent of Levy would have preferred the mess that was Gillett & Hicks.
As for Levy making a fat profit from selling the club - I think if someone with his nous was looking to make a quick killing, the last place he would look is running a football club.
to be fair I think the debt at united and liverpool has had a large effect on the transfer budgets, look at united transfers over the past couple of seasons they have been pretty inactive in comparison to previous seasons, and as MES says liverpool have been pretty inactive aside from the replacement of torres with suarez and carroll.
Tricky - Plan B, got to love that. Very funny. As for the Valley Girl accent... God love Frank Zappa.
I just keep thinking back to the comment from Levy saying he would be more inclined to sell if we don't get Stratford.
If the NDP is not viable then that's got to mean not viable to ENIC.... However to AEG, a Russian billionaire, a Saudi-Prince with the money to pay of all the problems it could be different. As we know Levy has doen the majority of the ground work for NDP.
I honestly think this could be the only option...or the plan B if you'd prefer.
Hypothetically, how a new stadium in Tottenham could be viable:
We know for a fact that the new WHL will cost £250 million. Spurs' architect, David Keirle, has said so.
We also know that Sainsburys are lined up for the supermarket.
So Levy goes back to Haringey and TfL and says "reduce your demands for planning gain contributions and we'll consider staying".
Levy also demands that Haringey increase the number of new homes that Spurs can build as part of the NDP.
Haringey cave in because they're now desperate.
As a result, the non stadium elements of the NDP will make an overall profit of, say, £80 million.
ENIC also raise a further £20 million in a rights issue which also sees them acquire 100% shareholding of THFC.
Finally, Spurs sign a seats rights deal, selling 1,000 corporate seats for ten years - thereby raising, conservatively, a further £20 million.
That gives Spurs a total war chest of £120 million, leaving £130 million of debt for the stadium. Paid back over 20 years, that would mean total repayments, plus interest, in the region of £10 million per annum.
Spurs would expect revenues to increase, as a result of the new stadium, by at least £20 million per annum and maybe by as much as £40 million.
In addition, Spurs would sell the stadium naming rights for anything between £5-10 million per annum.
So even after taking debt and interest repayments into account, Spurs would be a minimum of £15 million per annum better off. And maybe as much as £40 million.
Even if Spurs' starting war chest was only £50 million, and they had to raise £200 million of debt, they'd be looking at total repayments, including interest, of about £18 million per annum. So even in that scenario, they'd be at least £7 million per annum better off than they are now. And maybe more than £30 million better off.
In fact, even if Spurs got no concessions out of Haringey, TfL or English Heritage; even if they raised no money from property sales; and even if they raised no money from a rights issue or a seats rights deal; even if they consequently had a starting war chest of zero and had to borrow the whole £250 million, then total repayments, including interest, would still be less than £25 million per annum - the very minimum amount that Spurs would expect to earn annually from increased ticket and corporate sales, more diverse stadium use and stadium naming rights.
A new stadium in Tottenham not viable?
Utter, utter bollocks.
We own about 90% of the land we need at Tottenham so let's build stadium there with same design, cost and finance as one at Stratford would have been. Don't go ahead with supermarket, hotel and apartments and have bigger clear hinterland around new stadium.
Well hopefully its done and dusted now thank fuck, god i hope levy was bull shitting.
Good article by the way.
A few assumptions in there JimB but basically sound maths... If you're getting the money at standard commercial rates and the starting price is £250m. I guess that's the multi million dollar question though? Was Keirle referring to the cost of the NDP in that quote, I didn't see it?
I am a happy boy today nuff said
Spurs architect said stadium cost and design broadly same at Tottenham or Stratford. Extra costs at Tottenham are investment in supermarket, hotel and apartments, plus the public costs. So don't do the investment bit if not contributing towards scheme costs - and stadium financed at Stratford without supermarket, etc.
My English friends why do you keep saying NDP not viable? We are most wonderful party in all Egypt. May the storms bring you a thousand locusts.
And what did you do to Hossam Ghaly, he is good boy and lost teeth for your Tottinham. Vote NDP and we bring new camels.
Goodbye my friends, I really hope NDP become viable soon.
Sorry, Mes, but I have to disagree with much of that.
1. The timing of Spurs' initial announcement of their plan for the NDP isn't especially relevant. The global economy was already in meltdown. Sure, it got worse. But that wasn't all bad news for Spurs. It meant that construction costs got cheaper (even if some costs have returned to former levels again). As to borrowing, it is harder to come by (though not so much so for someone like Joe Lewis) but it is also a lot cheaper now than it was before the recession.
2. There have been property crashes before. And those who are savvy know that that is the time to invest.
3. It is widely agreed in commercial circles that Arsenal's deal with Emirates grossly underestimated the worth of the naming rights. The deal included 15 years of stadium sponsorship and 8 years of shirt sponsorship. Arsenal's shirt sponsorship alone was, at the time, worth not far short of the combined total. A complete cock up on the gooners' part. Spurs will be able to sign a far superior deal.
4. You may be right about limited capacity (56,000, by the way) but, if Spurs were genuinely thinking in those terms, they would have designed a stadium that would more easily lend itself to extension.
Mubarak's mum you are a genius.
I know how to save the team. One word: Mubarek.
Looks like he'll soon be out of a job and I hear he's loaded. Imagine having a former dictator as an owner! That'd be even better than the porn kings or oil sheiks. Not to mention he could fund the NDP out of his pocket change if the reports are to be believed. And it could be a huge step forward for the mideast peace process if you think about it.
Sure, he might be an absentee owner because of international arrest warrants or something, but I think it's clear that Mubarek is the only reasonable solution at this point.
Think about it.
EDIT: Even his mom is on board. Let's make it happen!
Roy may you be blessed with a camels penis. Please tell me what Mido ate in your country, perhaps famous pie with chipps no? We use his shorts for new flag for Egypt.