Calm down
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 4:00PM I can't even be bothered, but just to ease the amount of e-mails I'm currently getting, just read this and then go take a bubble bath:
Reckon this is a betting story more than a football story. Here's the likely chain of events.
1) Someone with a bit of cash hears a rumour suggesting Harry could be on the way out. Doesn't have to be anything too reliable, just enough to make him the guy think that it's worth taking a punt at 50/1. So let's say a couple of grand are put on with a bookie at 50/1. That's a £100,000 liability that's just appeared on their book.
2) Bookmaker readjusts the market so that it balances their liabilities, odds on Harry leaving come down. As he's at such high odds, say to 40/1 or 25/1.
3) Someone else hears the rumour, looks at the odds and sees they've been cut. Thinks "the bookie must know something I don't know..." and piles in on Harry as well.
Repeat 2 and 3.
Odds keep going down, money keeps going on. It's a symptom of the way that people still think of bookmakers as being driven purely by knowledge of what's happening with events, rather than as financial traders (of a sort). Each bookmaker will be looking to balance their risk on a particular market, and so the odds move as money comes in (which is why you hear about horses being backed in to 3/1 or whatever).
There's a good explanation of how this all works here.
With thanks to MattWPBS over at GG (hope he doesn't mind the copy and paste. I'm sure he doesn't).
There's a supermarket within walking distance if I need to pick up some eggs later on this evening.
Reader Comments (21)
Couldn't help it. Had to post it on Twitter
You will burn in the very depths of hell.
Incidentally, Harry has denied it and if you read his comments its obvious he thinks the stories about him leaving have something to do with Pompey and not the other allegation that seem to have been manufactured by the wonder that is the Interweb. Praise Al Gore.
Part of me wants it to be true so I can blame Levy
In this day and age rumours like this are given weight by the sheer amount of coverage you get from internet sites and forums. Pre-Internet, the rumour would have died a death a deserved one in the playground and pubs. Very slow news day again.
I love this stuff. Anything else they want to throw at us?
This is Harrys quote on Sky Sports ....Speculative stories have put forward a number of possible reasons as to why Redknapp could be about to leave White Hart Lane, but the man himself insists he is going nowhere.
He said: "I'm definitely not leaving. It's absolute nonsense. Absolute rubbish.
"I couldn't be happier than I am here. There's not a chance of that happening. I love it here and I have no intention of leaving. It couldn't have gone better for me."
he's staying and we will win at Bolton, happy days....COYS
absolut load of old tosh arry going nowere best manager weve had for years
Praise Geebus, this is one of the best non stories ever. If nothing else it shows that the bookmakers are full of the same spineless turds that work in the city.
Very well written and an accurate appraisal. Never concerned about Pompey, but worried about pending legal action. That said, any legal action is confidential and given Arry's importance to Spurs, Levy is not idiot so innocent until proven guilty would apply. Any such legal action would drag on for months (or longer) at any rate.
So in summary, all a load of unsubstantiated and illogical bollocks!
By the way, it is not driven by the bookmakers, just the idiotic herd mentally of people hoping to make a quick buck. It is only natural that bookmakers slash odds as bets come in as clearly outlined in the article. granted they could create a betting frenzy, but at the same time they lengthen the odds of the 'probables' meaning they lose money. And they are required by law to open their books on any extraordinary betting activities, therefore they would be in a bit of froth and bubble if it was fabricated and they could not produce the bone-fides of the punters.
The way I saw it, Harry 'Pretentious Crap' Hotspur's Blog on NewsNow ran a totally unsubstantiated story yeterday in which he quoted someone claiming to be in the know saying (in a nutshell), "I'm a lawyer and know another lawyer and he says that Harry's arrest has reared its ugly head again, and new evidence came to light and he's about to be arrested". No sources, evidence or quotes and no mention of how his "mate" knows this.
From then on, someone with a bit too much money and not enough sense (as you mention) lumps some money on 'arry leaving, someone else sees this and bets some more, the bookies slash their odds as that's what bookies do to protect their own money and avoid having to pay out. They assume, like the rest of us, that someone knows something we don't, and the price drops massively. Even the spokesman from William Hill has said "this is probably a bandwagon and maybe someone has inside information".
Finally, a fed up 'Arry is forced to make a statement saying "this is absolute nonsense, I don't know where these stories come from, I'm happy here and there's no chance of this happening." And there we have it.
Harry Hotspur, once again, shown to be a rumour-mongerer and a muppet. I can't see where else this rumour come from and it seems to be an example once more of the power and influence these blog sites have, and how freedom of speech in the wrong hands can snowball and cause a few hundred Yids to have a coronary.
...knowing Spurs, however, I wouldn't bet my life on this actually happening, especially now that I've said all that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/tottenham/6255035/Tottenham-manager-Harry-Redknapp-denies-exit-rumours-despite-betting-frenzy.html
And it's over.
Doesn't Harry Hotspur copy rumours from some of the closed off message boards? He should know better that these Spurs 'fans' are nothing more than attention-seekers.
Sorry, on a roll...just check this link. Why the hell would arry want to go to Pompey in the inescapable mess they are in when he has a once in a lifetime opportunity to manage a club with legitimate trophy claims? And he is hardly short of a quid...and Pompey could not afford the compensation that Levy would demand.
http://tottenhamblog.blogishness.com/uncategorized/redknapp-wants-answers/
Spooky, grab those eggs and make yourself and omlutte.
Some blogs out there don't know they do more harm than good with these type of reports. Its almost like there's a race to blurt out the latest bullshit rumour. And for what? A few hits on the counter?
Bookies must be LAUGHING.
Are you going to give us a nice bolton preview, spooky
Good article. Sanity is in short supply in Spursland currently. It is amazing that people don't understand how betting odds work, but many apparently don't. They think bookies have huge networks of infallible spies or something.
It has been very educational to watch this business unfold though, and see how the Internet is used to spread disinformation for vested interests, and how eager some people are to believe every little scrap of "inside knowledge" they are fed, even when the situation has been explained to them, and rumours flatly denied, they still work their hearts out to find reasons to make mugs of themselves.
Far from interesting, I've found the whole thing embarrassing. I'm embarrassed that so many of my fellow Spurs fans are gullible, easily led and just plain stupid, we've become a laughing stock.